Where will care home beds be shortest by 2035?

If no new care homes open, England will have 210 care home beds for every 1,000 people aged 85 and over in 2035, down from 304 today. Keeping today's ratio would take about 205,000 more beds, roughly 22,800 a year. The shortest supply will be in the fast ageing shire counties of the South West, East of England and South East, and in London, which already has the fewest beds for its older population.

This article sets out where the pressure falls: by region, by council and, for Kent, by district. It is written for two groups. If you are a developer or operator weighing a new home, it shows where demand is likely to outrun supply. If you are buying an existing home, it helps you judge whether occupancy is likely to hold up over the next decade.

The ageing population, and why we use people aged 85 and over

Talk about the ageing population in the UK usually starts with everyone over 65. For care homes the more useful group is narrower. Most people who live in care homes are very old, and the chance of needing one rises sharply after 85. The number of people aged 85+ is therefore the simplest single measure of future demand. Our figures cover England, which is where the CQC register and these ONS projections apply. England has 454,768 registered care home beds across the 150 councils in our data, and 1,494,933 people aged 85+. ONS projects that group will reach 2,169,736 by 2035, a rise of 45%.

The bed count is fixed at today's level in this analysis. That is deliberate: it shows how far supply would fall behind if nothing changed, which is the gap that new homes, extensions, home care and extra care housing will have to close between them.

Care home beds by region

Every region sees its ratio fall, but from very different starting points. The North East starts highest at 360 beds per 1,000 aged 85+ and still has 251 in 2035. South West ages fastest, with its 85+ population up 53%, and falls to 180. Outside London, South West ends lowest at 180.

London is a special case. It has the lowest ratio today (233) and the slowest growth in its 85+ population (30%). Many London boroughs place residents in care homes outside the capital, so part of London's demand is met in the counties around it. That matters if you run a home in Kent, Essex or Surrey: some of your future demand may come from London.

In absolute terms the South East needs the most: about 42,300 more beds by 2035 to keep its current ratio, more than any other region.

The fastest ageing councils

Growth in the 85+ population is fastest in shire counties, rural areas and some fast growing towns. Milton Keynes leads at +68%, followed by Cornwall (+60%) and North Northamptonshire (+59%). At the other end, Barking and Dagenham grows by just 10% and Tower Hamlets by 13%.

Fast growth alone does not mean a shortage. A council that starts with plenty of beds can absorb a lot of growth. The useful question is where fast growth meets a low starting ratio.

Where the ratio is lowest, today and in 2035

Today the median council has 302 beds per 1,000 aged 85+. Today, 31 councils are below 250. If no beds are added, 115 councils will be below 250 by 2035.

The lowest ratios today are all in London: all ten are boroughs, led by Haringey (108) and Westminster (111). The highest are in northern and Midlands cities such as Middlesbrough (567) and Leicester (505), which have more homes relative to a smaller very old population.

Leave London aside and the 2035 picture changes. The councils that end lowest are a mix of fast ageing rural counties and smaller unitary councils in the South: West Berkshire (139), Dorset (144) and Cornwall (149). These are the places where a well located new home may find demand most easily, subject to planning, staffing and fee levels.

Where are the biggest gaps in care home beds?

For a developer, the number of beds matters as much as the ratio. Large counties combine a big base with strong growth, so they top the list. Hampshire would need about 7,600 more beds by 2035 to keep its current ratio, and Kent about 7,500. The fifteen councils in the table below account for 77,000 beds, 37% of the England total.

The last column shows the gap as a share of each council's current beds. A figure near 50% means the area would need to grow its care home stock by half in nine years. In practice the gap will be met partly by new homes and partly by other forms of care, and some of it will show up as longer waits and higher fees.

Kent worked example

Kent is England's largest care home market, with 14,824 beds. Its 85+ population grows from 47,084 to 70,914, up 51%. Without new beds, its ratio falls from 315 to 209 per 1,000, placing it 77th lowest of 150 councils in 2035. To stand still it would need about 7,500 more beds, the 2nd largest gap in England after Hampshire. That is about 830 beds a year.

Recent building falls well short of that. Between 2017 and 2025 genuinely new homes in Kent added 2,125 beds, while closures removed 2,721. That is a net loss of about 66 beds a year. In the last 24 months the net figure was a gain of 83 beds. Sales of existing homes are excluded from both sides.

Kent County Council's own figures look only at people it funds. Its Accommodation Market Position Statement counts 2,890 older people in council funded residential care in 2025 and projects +580 by 2035 from population growth, with 1,110 in nursing care and +230. The council says it expects extra care housing and support at home to absorb part of the residential growth, while nursing demand rises because of more complex needs. On the council's own reading, nursing is where demand for beds is most likely to grow.

Kent by district

Within Kent the position varies a lot. The district figures below use beds in homes that serve older people (13,821 of Kent's 14,824), which gives a truer picture of older people's supply. Dartford ends the period best supplied at 272 per 1,000. Ashford ends lowest at 149, and also has the fastest growth, at +61%. Canterbury has the largest gap, about 975 older people's beds. Across the twelve districts the gap adds up to 7,022 beds.

Kent and its neighbours

By 2035 Kent would rank second lowest of the six. Essex ends lowest at 184 beds per 1,000 aged 85+, and East Sussex highest at 241. Medway, a separate unitary council inside the historic county, starts at 309 and falls to 210. Families often look across council borders, so a home near the Kent and Medway or Kent and East Sussex line draws on both populations.

How we worked this out

We counted every active care home bed registered with CQC on 1 October 2026 in each council area, counting homes registered under two providers once. We divided beds by the ONS 2022 based projection of people aged 85+ for 2026 to get today's ratio, and by the 2035 projection to get the ratio if no beds were added. Beds needed is the number that would keep today's ratio in 2035: current beds multiplied by the growth in the 85+ population. Regional figures add up beds and populations across the councils in each region, so large councils carry more weight. Kent district figures use beds in homes registered for older people.